India’s upcoming interim trade deal with Australia, set to be announced later March 21, will include import duty cuts on premium Australian wines, although there is no mention of the country’s dairy products, people aware of the matter said. A decision on the contentious issue of reducing import duties on Australian agricultural products and dairy has been reserved for the full trade deal to be signed later this year, they said.
This is the first trade agreement between the two nations and comes after 11 years of negotiations. An announcement on signing the trade pact by the end of the month is expected to be made at the conclusion of the second prime ministerial level India-Australia virtual summit on March 21.
The Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) to be announced will be an ‘early harvest’ agreement, one in which both parties sign off on a set of relatively easily achievable deliverables. Such pacts target goals such as tariff reduction and market access on select items while leaving more contentious topics off the agenda.
“The decision to include premium Australian wine in the list of items on which import duties would be slashed was taken by New Delhi in a bid to break the impasse in talks. It was seen that the growth in domestic wine consumption is enough to ensure enough business for both domestic and foreign players,” a senior official said.
Discussions on market access for Australian dairy products and meat, apart from Australia’s discomfort with opening up services exports, have proved to be major sticking points in the deal.
The text of the interim deal is also set to have dedicated chapters on energy and resources, key areas of interest for Australia, the people said.
Aussie wine
Australia has been the premier source of foreign wine for India. Currently, imports of wine from Australia stand at $8 million, up from $5 million in the previous year. This represents 40 percent of the total $20.3 million worth of wine imported by India.
Local wine production was about 17 million litres whereas wine imports were 5.2 million litres in 2018, the latest year for which data is available, according to professional services firm Dezan Shira & Associates. Wine is the fastest-growing alcoholic beverage in India with the industry growing at a compounded annual rate of 14 percent between 2010 and 2017.
With more than 60 designated wine-producing regions across the southern states of Australia, the country produced 1.2 billion litres of wine in 2018-19 and exported 67 percent of it.
“The industry is a major employer in the country and an important component of the travel and tourism sector. It has a lot of influence and has petitioned the government hard to open up business with India, one of the fastest-growing markets for wine globally,” said a senior trade expert advising the government.
Major potential
After hitting a high of $18 billion in 2017-18, India’s overall trade with Australia had continuously fallen till 2020-21 when it reached $12.2 billion. In the first 10 months of 2021-22, trade surged to $19 billion, pushed up mainly by higher coal prices.
At $13.5 billion, India’s imports are more than twice the $6.3 billion worth of exports to Australia. India’s yawning trade deficit is principally due to imports of Australian coal, currently pegged at over $10.1 billion in FY22, or 75 percent of all imports from the country. This included coking coal ($7.4 billion), steam coal ($1.4 billion), and $1.1 billion worth of non-agglomerated coal.
Starting at about $96 a tonne at the beginning of FY22, global coal prices shot up sharply to $422 a tonne on March 7, according to economic data provider firm Trading Economics. It has since then cooled to $334.5 per tonne.
India’s largest export to Australia is automotive diesel fuel ($2.8 billion). In agriculture, Australia is ambitious about getting market access for grains, fruits and vegetables. The country is a major source of lentils (masur) and chickpeas but the government remains wary of allowing Australian companies to expand into the Indian market because it is dominated by small farmers.
Australia wants to ensure that its premium food, beverage and consumer product providers can access e-commerce channels to better enter the Indian market. But Canberra has stressed that it wants to wait for India to first spell out its official e-commerce policy, an official said.
Australia also continues to have major discomfort with opening up services exports, including Mode 4 of services, which entails the movement of people for employment purposes. New Delhi wants Canberra to allow more Indian professionals to move to the country for work.
Moneycontrol had reported earlier that the deal could be the first to have a formal chapter on tightening supply chains between the countries.
Story till now
New Delhi has been discussing the India-Australia CECA for 11 years now, but talks have progressed quickly only since August 2020.
India announced in late August 2021 its intention to begin renegotiations on the CECA and sign an early harvest deal by December 2021. This was followed by an announcement in September 2021 that both sides would finalise the early harvest pact by Christmas of 2021, to be followed by a comprehensive free trade agreement in 2022.
The Christmas deadline was missed. While the government had been confident of working out the details, officials said existing issues derailed the talks. The latest talks on the deal were announced in September 2021.
The new trade pact is aimed at raising India’s trade with Australia to the level where it can complement the strategic relationship between the two countries. Australia was India’s 12th-largest trading partner, up from being the 15th- largest trading partner in 2020-21 and the 17th largest in 2019-20.
The bilateral relationship was elevated to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership at the first virtual summit held on June 4, 2020.
知情人士称，印度即将与澳大利亚达成的临时贸易协议将于 3 月 21 日晚些时候公布，其中将包括降低澳大利亚优质葡萄酒的进口关税，但并未提及该国的乳制品。他们说，关于降低澳大利亚农产品和乳制品进口关税这一有争议问题的决定已保留给将于今年晚些时候签署的全面贸易协议。
这是两国经过 11 年谈判达成的第一个贸易协定。预计将在 3 月 21 日举行的第二次印度-澳大利亚总理级虚拟峰会结束时宣布在本月底签署贸易协定。
即将宣布的全面经济合作协议（CECA）将是一项“早期收获”协议，双方在其中签署了一套相对容易实现的可交付成果。此类协议针对特定项目的关税削减和市场准入等目标，同时将更具争议性的话题排除在议程之外。
“新德里决定将优质澳大利亚葡萄酒列入将削减进口关税的商品清单，以打破谈判僵局。可以看出，国内葡萄酒消费的增长足以确保国内外企业都有足够的业务，”一位高级官员说。
除了澳大利亚对开放服务出口感到不安之外，关于澳大利亚乳制品和肉类市场准入的讨论已被证明是该协议的主要症结所在。
知情人士说，临时协议的文本还将有专门的章节讨论能源和资源，这是澳大利亚感兴趣的关键领域。
澳洲酒
澳大利亚一直是印度外国葡萄酒的主要来源。目前，从澳大利亚进口的葡萄酒为 800 万美元，高于去年的 500 万美元。这占印度进口葡萄酒总值 2030 万美元的 40%。
根据专业服务公司 Dezan Shira & Associates 的数据，2018 年当地葡萄酒产量约为 1700 万升，而葡萄酒进口量为 520 万升，这是可获得数据的最近一年。葡萄酒是印度增长最快的酒精饮料，该行业在 2010 年至 2017 年间以 14% 的复合年增长率增长。
澳大利亚南部各州拥有 60 多个指定的葡萄酒产区，该国在 2018-19 年度生产了 12 亿升葡萄酒，其中 67% 用于出口。
“该行业是该国的主要雇主，也是旅游业的重要组成部分。它有很大的影响力，并已请求政府努力与印度开展业务，印度是全球增长最快的葡萄酒市场之一，”一位为政府提供咨询的高级贸易专家表示。
主要潜力
在 2017-18 年达到 180 亿美元的高位后，印度与澳大利亚的整体贸易额持续下降，直到 2020-21 年达到 122 亿美元。在 2021-22 年的前 10 个月，贸易额飙升至 190 亿美元，主要受煤炭价格上涨的推动。
印度的进口额为 135 亿美元，是对澳大利亚出口额 63 亿美元的两倍多。印度巨大的贸易逆差主要是由于进口澳大利亚煤炭，目前在 22 财年超过 101 亿美元，占该国进口总额的 75%。这包括炼焦煤（74 亿美元）、动力煤（14 亿美元）和价值 11 亿美元的非团聚煤。
根据经济数据提供商公司 Trading Economics 的数据，从 22 财年初的每吨 96 美元左右开始，3 月 7 日全球煤炭价格飙升至每吨 422 美元。从那以后，它已降至每吨 334.5 美元。
印度对澳大利亚的最大出口是汽车柴油（28 亿美元）。在农业方面，澳大利亚雄心勃勃地希望获得谷物、水果和蔬菜的市场准入。该国是扁豆 (masur) 和鹰嘴豆的主要来源地，但政府仍对允许澳大利亚公司进军印度市场持谨慎态度，因为该市场由小农户主导。
澳大利亚希望确保其优质食品、饮料和消费品供应商能够进入电子商务渠道，以更好地进入印度市场。但一位官员表示，堪培拉强调，它希望等待印度首先阐明其官方电子商务政策。
澳大利亚也继续对开放服务出口感到严重不安，包括服务模式 4，这需要为就业目的而流动的人员。新德里希望堪培拉允许更多印度专业人士移居该国工作。
Moneycontrol 早些时候曾报道称，该协议 可能是第一个有关于收紧 两国供应链的正式章节的协议。
故事到现在
新德里已经讨论了 11 年的印澳 CECA，但直到 2020 年 8 月，谈判才迅速取得进展。
印度于 2021 年 8 月下旬宣布打算开始重新谈判 CECA，并在 2021 年 12 月之前签署早期收获协议。随后于 2021 年 9 月宣布，双方将在 2021 年圣诞节前敲定早期收获协议， 随后于 2022 年达成全面自由贸易协议。
错过了圣诞节的最后期限。尽管政府对制定细节充满信心，但官员们表示，现有问题使谈判脱轨。有关该交易的最新谈判于 2021 年 9 月宣布。
新的贸易协定旨在将印度与澳大利亚的贸易提高到可以补充两国战略关系的水平。澳大利亚是印度的第 12 大贸易伙伴，高于 2020-21 年的第 15 大贸易伙伴和 2019-20 年的第 17 大贸易伙伴。
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